Strategizing: Theory and Practice Strategizing: Theory and Practice Cтратегирование: теория и практика 2782-2435 2782-2621 44635 10.21603/2782-2435-2021-1-1-1-14 Национальные и региональные стратегии National and Regional Strategies Национальные и региональные стратегии The Strategic Imperative and the Paradigm Shift in Economics Сдвиг стратегического императива и парадигмы в экономике Сапир Жак Sapir Jacques Центр изучения модели индустриализации (CEMI) - Центр Роберта де Сорбона Париж Франция Centre for the Study of Industrialization Pattern (CEMI) - Foundation Robert de Sorbon Paris France Московская Школа Экономики Московского государственного университета имени М.В. Ломоносова Москва Россия Moscow School of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University Moscow Russian Federation 1 1 1 14 17 04 2021 17 05 2021 http://jstrategizing.ru/2021/06/28/sdvig-strategicheskogo-imperativa-i-p/

Идея стратегического мышления совершенно противоположна традиции увязывать выбор агентов (индивидуальных или коллективных) с процессом максимизации при наличии ограничений. Теория общего равновесия обесценила понятие стратегии, так же как теория всеобщей свободной торговли девальвировала понятие суверенитета. Но эта парадигма разваливается. С появлением радикальной неопределенности, ставшей очевидной из-за пандемии COVID-19, нужно заново изучать науку и искусство стратегии, ведь мы живем в мире баланса сил. Как можно определить стратегию? Необходимо четко различать стратегию государства и стратегию компании. Этот дискуссионный вопрос находится в самом фокусе спора о роли и значении различных институций в экономике. Существует множество стратегий. Поэтому нужно задаться вопросом: следует ли упражняться в искусстве выбора стратегии, если присутствует имманентная предрасположенность к рискованным операциям.

The very idea of strategic thinking is quite opposed to the tradition of linking the choices of agents, individual or collective, to the process of maximization under constraints. The theory of general equilibrium has closed the door to the notion of strategy, just as the theory of generalized free trade has closed that of sovereignty. But this paradigm is falling apart. With a new approach of radical uncertainty, something made even more obvious with the COVID-19 pandemic, we are relearning the science and art of strategy, the more so because we are living in a world of a balance of power. But what would be the definition of strategy? Quite clearly we must distinguish between state and company strategy. This debate is also at the very center of the controversy over the role and meaning of institutions in economics. There is also a variety of strategies and those having a distinct appetite for risk must seriously consider whether to practice the art of strategy or not.

 Стратегия стратегическое мышление неопределенность риск процессуальная рациональность индивидуальные предпочтения информация знание Strategy strategic thinking uncertainty risk procedural rationality individual preferences information knowledge

Agassi J. Methodological individualism. British Journal of Sociology. 1960;11(3):244-270. https://doi.org/10.2307/586749 Agassi J. Methodological individualism. British Journal of Sociology. 1960;11(3):244-270. https://doi.org/10.2307/586749 Agawa H. The reluctant admiral: Yamamoto and the Imperial Navy. Tokyo: Kodansha International; 1979. 397 p. Agawa H. The reluctant admiral: Yamamoto and the Imperial Navy. Tokyo: Kodansha International; 1979. 397 p. Arrow KJ. The informational structure of the firm. American Economic Review. 1985;75(2):303-307. Arrow KJ. The informational structure of the firm. American Economic Review. 1985;75(2):303-307. Balakrishnan G. The enemy: An intellectual portrait of Carl Schmitt. Verso; 2002. 320 p. Balakrishnan G. The enemy: An intellectual portrait of Carl Schmitt. Verso; 2002. 320 p. Becker GS. A theory of social interactions. Journal of Political Economy. 1974;82(6):1063-1093 Becker GS. A theory of social interactions. Journal of Political Economy. 1974;82(6):1063-1093. Bellamy R. “Dethroning politics”: Liberalism, constitutionalism and democracy in the thought of F. A. Hayek. British Journal of Political Science. 1994;24(4):419-441. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400006943 Bellamy R. “Dethroning politics”: Liberalism, constitutionalism and democracy in the thought of F. A. Hayek. British Journal of Political Science. 1994;24(4):419-441. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400006943 Betts R. Analysis, war, and decision: Why intelligence failures are inevitable. World Politics. 1978;31(1):61-89. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009967 Betts R. Analysis, war, and decision: Why intelligence failures are inevitable. World Politics. 1978;31(1):61-89. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009967 Blaug M. Second thoughts on the Keynesian revolution. Rassegna Economica. 1987;(1):605-634. (In Ital.) Blaug M. Second thoughts on the Keynesian revolution. Rassegna Economica. 1987;(1):605-634. (In Ital.). Carabell AM. On Keynes’s method. London: Palgrave Macmillan; 1988. 369 p. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19414-8 Carabell AM. On Keynes’s method. London: Palgrave Macmillan; 1988. 369 p. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-19414-8 Carlile PR. Transferring, translating, and transforming: An integrative framework for managing knowledge across boundaries. Organization Science. 2004;15(5):555-568. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1040.0094 Carlile PR. Transferring, translating, and transforming: An integrative framework for managing knowledge across boundaries. Organization Science. 2004;15(5):555-568. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1040.0094 Carry A. Uncertainty in the writings of Kondratiev. In: Schmidt C, editors. Uncertainty in Economic Thought, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 1996. pp. 126-145. Carry A. Uncertainty in the writings of Kondratiev. In: Schmidt C, editors. Uncertainty in Economic Thought, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 1996. pp. 126-145. Chandler AD. Strategy and structure: Chapters in the history of the American industrial enterprise. Cambridge: M.I.T. Press; 1962. 490 p. Chandler AD. Strategy and structure: Chapters in the history of the American industrial enterprise. Cambridge: M.I.T. Press; 1962. 490 p. Davidson P. Some misunderstanding on uncertainty in modern classical economics. In: Schmidt C, editor. Uncertainty in Economic Thought. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 1996. Davidson P. Some misunderstanding on uncertainty in modern classical economics. In: Schmidt C, editor. Uncertainty in Economic Thought. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar; 1996. de Groot A. Thought and choice in chess. La Haye: Mouton; 1965. 479 p. de Groot A. Thought and choice in chess. La Haye: Mouton; 1965. 479 p. Dixit KA, Nalebuff BJ. Thinking strategically: the competitive edge in business, politics and everyday life. New York: W. W. Norton and Company; 1991. 393 p. Dixit KA, Nalebuff BJ. Thinking strategically: the competitive edge in business, politics and everyday life. New York: W. W. Norton and Company; 1991. 393 p. Foch F. The Principles of War. Lectures given at the École supérieure de guerre. Paris: Berger-Levrault; 1903. 375 p. Foch F. The Principles of War. Lectures given at the École supérieure de guerre. Paris: Berger-Levrault; 1903. 375 p. Garthoff RL. Intelligence assessment and policymaking: A decision point in the Kennedy administration. Washington: Brookings Institution; 1984. 53 p. Garthoff RL. Intelligence assessment and policymaking: A decision point in the Kennedy administration. Washington: Brookings Institution; 1984. 53 p. Georgescu-Roegen N. Mechanistic dogma in economics. British Review of Economic Issues. 1978;2:1-10. Georgescu-Roegen N. Mechanistic dogma in economics. British Review of Economic Issues. 1978;2:1-10. Giesey RE. The king never dies. The royal funeral in Renaissance times. Paris: Flammarion; 1992. 360 p. (In French). Giesey RE. The king never dies. The royal funeral in Renaissance times. Paris: Flammarion; 1992. 360 p. (In French). Hahn FH. Keynesian economics and general equilibrium theory: reflections on some current debates. In: Harcourt GC, editor. The microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics. London: Palgrave Macmillan; 1997. pp. 25-40. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03236-5_2. Hahn FH. Keynesian economics and general equilibrium theory: reflections on some current debates. In: Harcourt GC, editor. The microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics. London: Palgrave Macmillan; 1997. pp. 25-40. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-03236-5_2 Heidegger M. Essays and conferences. Paris: Gallimard; 1958. 349 p. (In French). Heidegger M. Essays and conferences. Paris: Gallimard; 1958. 349 p. (In French). Henninger L. Fluid spaces and solid spaces: a new strategic reality? National Defense Journal. 2020;(753):5-7. (In French). Henninger L. Fluid spaces and solid spaces: a new strategic reality? National Defense Journal. 2020;(753):5-7. (In French). Joxe A. Travels to the sources of war. Paris: Presses universitaires de France; 1993. 448 p. (In French). Joxe A. Travels to the sources of war. Paris: Presses universitaires de France; 1993. 448 p. (In French). Kahneman D, Knetsch JL, Thaler RH. Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1991;5(1):193-206. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.193. Kahneman D, Knetsch JL, Thaler RH. Anomalies: The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1991;5(1):193-206. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.193 Kervégan J-F. What to do with Carl Schmitt. Paris: Gallimard; 2011. 336 p. (In French). Kervégan J-F. What to do with Carl Schmitt. Paris: Gallimard; 2011. 336 p. (In French). Keynes JM. The general theory and after: Part II. Defence and development. London: Macmillan; 1973. 584 p. Keynes JM. The general theory and after: Part II. Defence and development. London: Macmillan; 1973. 584 p. Keynes JM. The general theory of employment, interest and money. Paris: Payot; 1988. pp. 162-163. (In French). Keynes JM. The general theory of employment, interest and money. Paris: Payot; 1988. pp. 162-163. (In French). Kincaid H. Reduction, explanation and individualism. Philosophy of Science. 1986;53(4):492-513. https://doi.org/10.1086/289337 Kincaid H. Reduction, explanation and individualism. Philosophy of Science. 1986;53(4):492-513. https://doi.org/10.1086/289337 Kogut B, Zander U. Knowledge of the firm and the evo­lutionary theory of the multinational corporation. Journal of International Business Studies. 1993;24(4):625-645. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490248 Kogut B, Zander U. Knowledge of the firm and the evolutionary theory of the multinational corporation. Journal of International Business Studies. 1993;24(4):625-645. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490248 Koopmans TC. Stationary ordinal utility and impatience. Econometrica. 1960;28(2):287-309. Koopmans TC. Stationary ordinal utility and impatience. Econometrica. 1960;28(2):287-309. Kvint V. Strategy for the global market. New York: Routledge; 2016. 519 p. Kvint V. Strategy for the global market. New York: Routledge; 2016. 519 p. Kydland FE, Prescott C. Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy. 1977;85(3):473-491. Kydland FE, Prescott C. Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy. 1977;85(3):473-491. Lehmann-Ortega L, Le Roy F, Garrette B, Dussauge P, Durand R. Strategor. The whole business strategy. Paris: Dunod; 2013. 704 p. (In French). Lehmann-Ortega L, Le Roy F, Garrette B, Dussauge P, Durand R. Strategor. The whole business strategy. Paris: Dunod; 2013. 704 p. (In French). Lichtenstein S, Slovic P. Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology. 1971;89(1):46-55. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0031207 Lichtenstein S, Slovic P. Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology. 1971;89(1):46-55. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0031207 Marrin S. The 9/11 terrorist attacks: A failure of policy not strategic intelligence analysis. Intelligence and National Security. 2011;26(2-3):182-202. https:// doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2011.559140. Marrin S. The 9/11 terrorist attacks: A failure of policy not strategic intelligence analysis. Intelligence and Na-tional Security. 2011;26(2-3):182-202. https:// doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2011.559140 Minc A. Happy globalization. Paris: Pocket; 1999. 208 p. (In French). Minc A. Happy globalization. Paris: Pocket; 1999. 208 p. (In French). Morison SE. History of United States naval operations in World War II. Volume III. The rising sun in the pacific, 1931-April 1942, Boston: Little, Brown; 1988. pp. 136-139. Morison SE. History of United States naval operations in World War II. Volume III. The rising sun in the pacific, 1931-April 1942, Boston: Little, Brown; 1988. pp. 136-139. Myrdal G. Monetary equilibrium. London: W. Hodge; 1939. 214 p. Myrdal G. Monetary equilibrium. London: W. Hodge; 1939. 214 p. O’Driscoll GP, Rizzo MJ. The economics of time and ignorance. London: Routledge; 1996. 300 p. O’Driscoll GP, Rizzo MJ. The economics of time and ignorance. London: Routledge; 1996. 300 p. Olson M. The logic of collective action. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. 1965. Olson M. The logic of collective action. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. 1965. Penrose ET. The theory of the growth of the firm. Oxford: Blackwell; 1959. 272 p. Penrose ET. The theory of the growth of the firm. Oxford: Blackwell; 1959. 272 p. Perez YA. The virtues of protectionism. Crises and globalization, the surprising lessons of the past. Paris: Edition du Toucan; 2020. 288 p. (In French). Perez YA. The virtues of protectionism. Crises and globalization, the surprising lessons of the past. Paris: Edition du Toucan; 2020. 288 p. (In French). Porter ME. Strategic choices and competition. Techniques for analyzing sectors and industry competition, Paris: Économica; 1982. 426 p. (In French). Porter ME. Strategic choices and competition. Techniques for analyzing sectors and industry competition, Paris: Économica; 1982. 426 p. (In French). Priest KL, Seemiller C. Past experiences, present beliefs, future practices: Using narratives to re(present) leader-ship educator identity. Journal of Leadership Education. 2018;17(1):93-113. https://doi.org/10.12806/V17/I1/R3. Priest KL, Seemiller C. Past experiences, present beliefs, future practices: Using narratives to re(present) leader-ship educator identity. Journal of Leadership Education. 2018;17(1):93-113. https://doi.org/10.12806/V17/I1/R3 Radner R. Bounded rationality, indeterminacy and the theory of the firm. Economic Journal. 1996;106(6):1360-1373. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235528. Radner R. Bounded rationality, indeterminacy and the theory of the firm. Economic Journal. 1996;106(6):1360-1373. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235528 Ramstad Y. A pragmatist’s quest for holistic knowledge: The scientific methodology of John R. Commons. Journal of Economic Issues. 1986;20(4):1067-1105. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1986.11504576 Ramstad Y. A pragmatist’s quest for holistic knowledge: The scientific methodology of John R. Commons. Journal of Economic Issues. 1986;20(4):1067-1105. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1986.11504576. Robinson J. Time in economics // Kyklos. 1980;33(2):219-229. Robinson J. Time in economics. Kyklos. 1980;33(2):219-229. Sapir J. Black holes in economics. Essay on the impo­ssibility of thinking about time and money. Paris: Albin Michel; 2000. 336 p. (In French). Sapir J. Black holes in economics. Essay on the impossi­bility of thinking about time and money. Paris: Albin Michel; 2000. 336 p. (In French). Sapir J. Book review by V. Kvint “Strategy for the global market: theory and practical applications”. Russian Journal of Industrial Economics. 2020;12(3):377-384. Sapir J. Book review by V. Kvint “Strategy for the global market: theory and practical applications”. Russian Journal of Industrial Economics. 2020;12(3):377-384. Sapir J. Economists against democracy - Economists and economic policy between power, globalization and democracy. Paris: Albin Michel; 2002. 272 p. (In French). Sapir J. Economists against democracy - Economists and economic policy between power, globalization and democracy. Paris: Albin Michel; 2002. 272 p. (In French). Sapir J. Institutions and institutionalism: what, why and how. Collection of reports of the scientific conference Where to go? Reforming institutes and political economics in Russia; 2020; Moscow. Moscow: Znanie-M; 2020. p. 40-94. https://doi.org/10.38006/907345-19-5.2020.40.94. Sapir J. Institutions and institutionalism: what, why and how. Collection of reports of the scientific conference Where to go? Reforming institutes and political economics in Russia; 2020; Moscow. Moscow: Znanie-M; 2020. p. 40-94. https://doi.org/10.38006/907345-19-5.2020.40.94. Sapir J. Sovereignty, democracy, secularism. Paris: Michalon; 2016. 320 p. (In French). Sapir J. Sovereignty, democracy, secularism. Paris: Michalon; 2016. 320 p. (In French). Sapir J. What an economy for the 21st century. Paris: Odile Jacob; 2005. 491 p. (In French). Sapir J. What an economy for the 21st century. Paris: Odile Jacob; 2005. 491 p. (In French). Schmitt C. Land and sea. Paris: Pierre Guillaume de Roux éditions; 2017. 240 p. (In French). Schmitt C. Land and sea. Paris: Pierre Guillaume de Roux éditions; 2017. 240 p. (In French). Schmitt C. Legality, legitimacy. Paris. 1936. (In French). Schmitt C. Legality, legitimacy. Paris. 1936. (In French). Schmitt C. Political theology. Paris: Gallimard; 1988. 182 p. (In French). Schmitt C. Political theology. Paris: Gallimard; 1988. 182 p. (In French). Shackle GLS. Expectations in economics. Cambridge: University Press; 1949. 146 p. Shackle GLS. Expectations in economics. Cambridge: University Press; 1949. 146 p. Shackle GLS. On the nature of profit. In: Frower SF, editors. Business, time and thought. Selected papers of G.L.S. Shackle. London: Palgrave Macmillan; 1988. pp. 104-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-08100-4_9 Shackle GLS. On the nature of profit. In: Frower SF, editors. Business, time and thought. Selected papers of G.L.S. Shackle. London: Palgrave Macmillan; 1988. pp. 104-123. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-08100-4_9 Shackle GLS. Time in economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company; 1967. Shackle GLS. Time in economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company; 1967. Shackle GLS. Uncertainty in economics and other reflections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1955. 267 p. Shackle GLS. Uncertainty in economics and other reflections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1955. 267 p. Simon HA. From substantive to procedural rationality. In: Latsis SJ, editors. Method and appraisal in economics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1976. pp. 129-148. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511572203.006. Simon HA. From substantive to procedural rationality. In: Latsis SJ, editors. Method and appraisal in economics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1976. pp. 129-148. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511572203.006 Simon HA. Rationality as process and as product of thought. American Economic Review. 1978;68(2):1-16. Simon HA. Rationality as process and as product of thought. American Economic Review. 1978;68(2):1-16. Simon HA. Theories of bounded rationalities. In: McGuire CB, Radner R, editors. Decision and organization: A volume in honor of Jacob Marschak, Amsterdam: North-Holland; 1972. pp. 161-178. Simon HA. Theories of bounded rationalities. In: McGuire CB, Radner R, editors. Decision and organization: A volume in honor of Jacob Marschak, Amsterdam: North-Holland; 1972. pp. 161-178. Söderholm A. Project management of unexpected events. International Journal of Project Management. 2008;26(1):80-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.08.016 Söderholm A. Project management of unexpected events. International Journal of Project Management. 2008;26(1):80-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.08.016 Taleb NN. Black swan and domains of statistics // The American Statistician. 2007;61(3):198-200. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313007X219996 Taleb NN. Black swan and domains of statistics. The American Statistician. 2007;61(3):198-200. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313007X219996 Taleb NN. Fat tails, asymmetric knowledge, and decision making: essay in honor of Benoit Mandelbrot’s 80th birthday. Willmott: Technical paper series; 2005. pp. 56-59. Taleb NN. Fat tails, asymmetric knowledge, and decision making: essay in honor of Benoit Mandelbrot’s 80th birthday. Willmott: Technical paper series; 2005. pp. 56-59. Taleb NN. The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. Second Edition. London: Random House Trade Paperbacks; 2010. 444 p. Taleb NN. The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. Second Edition. London: Random House Trade Paperbacks; 2010. 444 p. Tversky A, Kahneman D. Loss aversion in riskless choice: A reference-dependent model. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1991;106(4):1039-1061. https:// doi.org/10.2307/2937956 Tversky A, Kahneman D. Loss aversion in riskless choice: A reference-dependent model. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1991;106(4):1039-1061. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937956 Tversky A, Kahneman D. Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business. 1986;59(4):S251-S278. https://doi.org/10.1086/296365 Tversky A, Kahneman D. Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business. 1986;59(4):S251-S278. https://doi.org/10.1086/296365 Tversky A. Rational theory and constructive choice. Rational foundations of economic behaviour: materials IEA Conference on the rational foundations of economic behaviour; 1996; Turin. Turin, 1996. p. 185-197. Tversky A. Rational theory and constructive choice. Rational foundations of economic behaviour: materials IEA Conference on the rational foundations of economic behaviour; 1996; Turin. Turin, 1996. p. 185-197. Uittenhove K, Poletti C, Dufau S, Lemaire P. The time course of strategy sequential difficulty effects: an ERP study in arithmetic. Experimental Brain Research. 2013;227(1):1-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00221-012-3397-9 Uittenhove K, Poletti C, Dufau S, Lemaire P. The time course of strategy sequential difficulty effects: an ERP study in arithmetic. Experimental Brain Research. 2013;227(1):1-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00221-012-3397-9 Van Creveld M. Command in war. Cambridge: Harvard University Press; 1985. pp. 155-168. Van Creveld M. Command in war. Cambridge: Harvard University Press; 1985. pp. 155-168. Weintraub ER. General equilibrium analysis. Studies in appraisal. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1985. 208 p. Weintraub ER. General equilibrium analysis. Studies in appraisal. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1985. 208 p. Weiss JN, Rosenberg S. Sequencing strategies and tactics. In: Burgess G, Burgess H, editors. Beyond Intractability, Boulder: Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado. 2003. Weiss JN, Rosenberg S. Sequencing strategies and tactics. In: Burgess G, Burgess H, editors. Beyond Intractability, Boulder: Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado. 2003. Савкин В. Е. Основные принципы оперативного искусства и тактики. М.: Воениздат, 1972. 375 с. Savkin VE. Basic principles of operational art and tactics. Moscow: Voenizdat; 1972. 375 p. (In Russ.) Сапир Ж. Основы экономического суверенитета и вопрос о формах его реализации // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2020. Т. 179. № 2. С. 3-12. Sapir J. Basic principles of economic sovereignty and the question of the forms of its exercise. Problemy Prognozirovaniya. 2020;179(2):3-12. (In Russ.) Свечин А. А. Стратегия. М.: Военный вестник, 1927. 265 с. Svechin AA. Strategy. Moscow: Voennyy vestnik; 1927. 265 p. (In Russ.)