Strategizing: Theory and Practice Strategizing: Theory and Practice Cтратегирование: теория и практика 2782-2435 2782-2621 75048 10.21603/2782-2435-2024-4-1-27-46 Национальные и региональные стратегии National and Regional Strategies Национальные и региональные стратегии Strategic View: why Forecasters were Wrong on Russian Growth for 2022 and 2023, and why they pr obably will be for 2024 Стратегический взгляд: почему прогнозы экономического роста России на 2022 и 2023 гг. провалились и почему они, по всей вероятности, провалятся и в 2024 г. Сапир Ж. Sapir Jacques sapir@msh-paris.fr Центр изучения режимов индустриализации Париж Франция Center for the Study of Industrialization Modes Paris France 12 02 2024 12 02 2024 4 1 27 46 05 01 2024 22 01 2024 https://jstrategizing.ru/en/issues/22293/22296/

Когда в конце февраля 2022 г. на Россию обрушились санкции, западные и некоторые отечественные экономические институты стали прогнозировать различные катастрофы в отношении российской экономики. Однако ни в 2022 г., ни в 2023 г. эти прогнозы не оправдались. Причины ошибочного прогнозирования могут быть связаны как с техническими трудностями, связанными с невозможностью разработать надежный прогноз в условиях быстро меняющейся ситуации, так и с характером используемой модели, а также с идеологической или политической предвзятостью прогнозистов. Однако даже некоторые российские институты не были застрахованы от ошибок прогнозирования. В результате масштабный экономический рост, начавшийся в России во втором квартале 2023 г., стал для экономистов сюрпризом. Существует ли вероятность, что такая ситуация повторится в 2024 г.?

With the start of Western sanctions against Russia at the end of February 2022, numerous catastrophic forecasts have been made about the Russian economy by both Western and some Russian economic institutions. However, neither for 2022 nor for 2023 were these predictions vindicated. Multiple errors can be traced to both technical difficulties associated with making serious forecasts in a rapidly changing situation, the nature of model used, and ideological or political bias. Even some Russian institutions demonstrated forecasting errors. The massive economic growth that started in Russia in the second quarter of 2023 obviously surprises economists. One wonders if such a situation will repeat it 2024.

 экономический рост Россия санкции прогнозирование ошибки прогнозирования economic growth Russia sanctions forecasting forecasting errors

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